Spain’s new limit on the regulated natural‑gas tariff, known as the Tarifa de Último Recurso (TUR), will freeze price hikes at 15% for the last quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2027. While the move eases the immediate winter burden, it also creates a shortfall of roughly €200 million. The shortfall stems from the way the tariff is tied to spot and futures market prices, which cover 30% of the regulated rate for about 3.1 million households.
Those households won’t see the deficit disappear; instead, they’ll repay it later with interest set at 3.22%. In practice, the cap offers a seasonal breather, but the cost will be spread over time as gas demand falls in spring.